PENGARUH BELANJA PEMERINTAH TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

Abstrak

This study examines the effect of government expenditure on economic growth in Indonesia using annual time-series data for 2005-2025. Economic growth is measured by the annual growth rate of real gross domestic product, while government expenditure is represented by realised state expenditure in trillion rupiah. The original thesis dataset was re-estimated into a bivariate specification so that the analysis contains only government expenditure and economic growth. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test shows that economic growth is stationary at level, whereas government expenditure becomes stationary after first differencing, allowing the use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach. The Akaike Information Criterion selects ARDL(1,0). The Bounds test produces an F-statistic of 5.559, exceeding the one-per cent upper bound of 5.496, which indicates a level relationship. Nevertheless, government expenditure is statistically insignificant in the long run (coefficient -0.000596; p-value 0.3919) and in the short run (coefficient -0.000536; p-value 0.4205). The error-correction coefficient is negative and significant (-0.899; p-value 0.0051), suggesting a relatively rapid adjustment toward equilibrium. These findings imply that the aggregate amount of government expenditure alone does not adequately explain Indonesia's annual economic growth; spending composition, implementation timing, productivity, and economic shocks are also important.

Kata kunci

• ARDL
• Belanja Pemerintah
• Economic Growth
• Government Expenditure
• Indonesia
• fiscal policy