Dampak inflasi sektor pertanian terhadap kinerja sektor pertanian dan makroekonomi Provinsi Sulawesi Tenggara

Abstrak

Agricultural inflation is one of the main sources of price pressure in regions with an agrarian-based economic structure. Southeast Sulawesi Province, where agriculture contributes significantly to regional gross domestic product (GRDP), is highly vulnerable to fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices. This study aims to analyze the impact of agricultural sector inflation on agricultural sector performance and macroeconomic variables in Southeast Sulawesi Province in both the short and long run. The study employs a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) using time-series data to capture dynamic relationships and long-run cointegration among variables. The results indicate that agricultural inflation has a negative long-run effect on agricultural sector performance, reflected in a decline in agricultural GRDP due to rising input costs and shrinking farmers’ profit margins. Furthermore, agricultural inflation is significantly linked to macroeconomic variables such as money supply, interest rates, poverty, unemployment, and agricultural investment. These findings suggest that controlling agricultural inflation is a critical prerequisite for sustainable regional economic development based on agriculture. Therefore, integrated policies combining inflation control, monetary and fiscal measures, and agricultural productivity enhancement are essential.

Kata kunci

• VECM
• agricultural GRDP
• agricultural sector inflation
• regional macroeconomics