Article
Faktor penentu investasi sektor pertanian di Provinsi Sulawesi Tenggara: Analisis Error Correction Model (ECM)
Jurnal Sosio Agribisnis, Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026), hlm. 48–60
Abstrak
Agricultural investment plays an important role in promoting regional economic growth through increased productivity, employment creation, and food security. However, the development of agricultural investment in Southeast Sulawesi Province is influenced by various dynamic macroeconomic conditions. This study aims to analyze the determinants of agricultural investment in Southeast Sulawesi Province. The study employed quarterly secondary data covering the period 2010–2022 obtained from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) of Southeast Sulawesi Province and Bank Indonesia. The analytical method used was the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), complemented by Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analyses. The results indicate that agricultural investment has a long-run equilibrium relationship with macroeconomic variables. In the short run, previous investment and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) are the main determinants of agricultural investment, while interest rates and inflation do not exert a substantial influence. The FEVD analysis further reveals that, in the long run, GRDP is the most influential external factor explaining the variation in agricultural investment after the investment variable itself. Therefore, policies aimed at strengthening regional economic growth, improving agricultural productivity, and creating a favorable investment climate are essential to encourage sustainable agricultural investment in Southeast Sulawesi Province.