Article
Analisis ketersediaan dan kebutuhan beras di Provinsi Sulawesi Tenggara
Jurnal Sosio Agribisnis, Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026), hlm. 6–20
Abstrak
This study aims to analyze the factors influencing rice availability and demand, as well as to project rice availability and demand in Southeast Sulawesi Province for the period 2024–2034. This study uses secondary time series data covering the period 1994–2024 obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the National Logistics Agency (Perum BULOG). The analysis uses a multiple linear regression model in the form of a double-log to test partial and simultaneous effects, and an ARIMA model for projection analysis. The results show that, simultaneously, rice prices, harvested land area, and fertilizer prices have a significant effect on rice availability. Partially, rice prices, harvested land area, and fertilizer prices have a significant effect on rice availability. Regarding rice demand, rice prices, cassava prices, and population size simultaneously have a significant effect. Partially, rice prices and cassava prices have an insignificant effect, while population size has a significant effect. The projection results show that the rice surplus is expected to increase from 15.7 percent in 2024 to 18.9 percent in 2034, with rice availability growing by 17.3 percent and rice demand by 14.2 percent, indicating strong potential for rice self-sufficiency and increased regional food security.